Sunday, April 29, 2007

Fun with Numbers

Baseball Musings has a fun little line-up analysis that you can put in 9 guys and it spits out the lineup that will score the most runs. It's based on the players on-base and slugging percentage. Here's what it spit out for the Cubs.

1. Lee
2. DeRosa
3. Soriano
4. Ramirez
5. Barrett
6. Floyd
7. Theriot
8. Pie
9. Pitcher (Hill)

I used Floyd because of he has the highest OPS of the three remaining outfielders. I used Hill as the pitcher because he is pitching tommorrow's game. Obviously Lee is not going to bat lead off, but it does show that DeRosa and Theriot might switch spots while DeRosa is still hitting hot.

Baseball Prospectus plays the rest of the season 1,000,000 times to determine who will and gives them playoff odds. I generally like to eliminate teams with less than 10% of chance, so goodbye to: Devil Rays, Royals, Nationals, Pirates, and Diamondbacks. The last one kind of confuses me, but I guess the computers have not been convinced. The Cubs are at 38% right now, which is still pretty good considering that they have a 1/4 chance of making it at the start of the season. Really it's less than that with 6 teams in their division.

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Crowds

I had the chance last night to view some of the Mavericks Warriors game on ESPN. The crowd was awesome for the Warriors, chanting and coming through really loud on television. It reminded me of when the Tigers made the playoffs last year in baseball. I really like it when down teams suddenly make the playoffs. You really see only the true fans at the games. The fans are boisterous and only want their team to win.

Once a team becomes popular, things change within the game setting. Corporations are more interested in buying the tickets, making fans come for a different reason. Many more fans come for the entertainment or because it is cool or hip to do. I think Soldier Field will not be as loud next year for this reason. The Bears are cool again to the average fan in Chicago. They made the Super Bowl. All of the rich people that can afford the higher ticket prices will take up all of the seats. The Bulls are still running under the radar here in Chicago. They do not have a huge superstar that everybody identifies with the team, no Jordan or Sosa or Payton. The team quietly put a good season together during the Bears run and right before the popular baseball season in Chicago. Even now, I still think they are a little under the radar because of their seed and the Cubs and White Sox weird starts. That makes it nice for the Bulls, the United Center will be loud for whoever comes along next.